Concerns Over Climate Change

Climate change

Climate change is a much debated issue, which has scientists divided. Some believe that the current warming trend is part of a series of natural fluctuations. Others argue that the Earth’s climate is heavily influenced by human activity, mainly through the increase of greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide and Methane. Whichever the case, the effects that the current global warming trend are having on both water and food security are detrimental. As I’m sure is obvious now from my previous posts, food security in Africa has long been an issue due to the unequal distribution of water resources and a lack of means by many to access them. However, this recent warming has only exacerbated the problems that already exist across Africa. This post will be looking at the impact of climate change on both water and food security in Sub Saharan Africa, as well as looking at a few ways farmers may maintain their crop yields despite climate change.

Effect on water security

Both academic and public interest in climate change and global warming are growing as the impact it is having on our lives is undeniable. One of the consequences of global warming is the effect it will have on precipitation, and this has been the focus of many studies. For example, it has been predicted by Misra, 2014 that precipitation is Sub-Saharan Africa will be reduced by approximately 10% by 2050  Furthermore, this reduction in the amount of rainfall received in the region would have further knock-on effects. It is estimated that if this reduction in rainfall is realized, drainage would fall by 17%. Sub-Saharan regions where rainfall is 500-600mm/year would experience a loss of surface drainage by 50-30% (respectively).

Effect on food security

Quite simply, if water security is further jeopardized, food supply will also be compromised. The uncertainty of the Earth’s future climate means that farmers are unable to plan what seeds they plant around the weather conditions. This uncertainty means that agricultural yield over the next century will be in jeopardy. A study by Jarvis et al. (2010) has concluded that the reductions in precipitation due to climate change will affect arid and semi-arid climates the most, and that in these areas rainfall will reduce by 20% or more over the next 100 years.

Northern African provinces such as Libya and Sudan are particularly arid, and so their fresh water reserves are declining rapidly. This is exacerbated by rapid population growth and hence a huge increase in the demand for both water and food. There has been an exponential rise in the demand for water, for drinking, domestic and agricultural use, as well as in the industrial sector. Droughts caused by climate change, such as the one in South Africa’s Western Cape, have meant that agricultural yields have declined. I posted a video some time ago explaining how there is extreme food spoilage in South Africa. This has driven the price of un-spoiled produce right up, and many African’s who are on a low income are unable to afford to buy sufficient food for their households.

What can we do about it?

In my last post, I spoke about the benefits of farmer-led irrigation. I recently read a paper by Vermeulen et al. (2012) which also speaks of the importance of supporting smallholder farmers in light of a changing climate. They offer the following guidelines as a means to overcome the effects of climate change: 

• Increasing efforts to adapt to climate change, and being consistent with these efforts over decadal time scales
• Better manage agricultural risks that are associated with climate change and increasing uncertainty with the weather, including extreme events such as cyclones and drought
• Employ mitigation strategies so that the rate of climate change falls, such as carbon sequestration and encouraging reduced gas emissions

As aforementioned, it is the extreme variability and uncertainty in the weather that leads to poor harvests due to a lack of ability to plan. It can be said that most failed crop yields are due to either insufficient rainfall or excess rainfall. If farmers in Africa are to be better prepared for either an increase or decrease in rainfall, they must have a better idea of the climatic conditions. Improved forecasting would increase the certainty of how much rainfall there would be. A recent article by the World Bank (2017) supports this claim and saying that investing in weather forecasting reduces the rink of losses to the economy due to climate change. Africa, however, has the world’s least developed weather forecasting network. The majority of its weather stations do not meet the World Meteorological Organizations standards. The article reports that over half of surface weather reports are inaccurate, as well as 71% of upper air forecasts. Investment of US$ 1.5 billion would be required in order to bring all weather stations across the continent up to WMO’s standard. Whilst this seems extortionate for such a poor nation, annual loses due to erratic weather conditions are far higher. Across the continent, $13 billion is lost in agriculture and $22 billion is lost to poor well-being due to malnutrition. It is estimated that as much as $30 billion could be saved annually by investing in modernising the weather network as it would greatly increase productivity in the agricultural sector.

So, even though future rainfall is predicted to be scarce across Africa, it doesn’t necessarily mean that agriculture has to suffer. Improving weather forecasting coupled with improved farming practices and planting the right seeds for the weather conditions would help to reduce agricultural loses and hence increase food security.